Canadian Housing Market Update July 2025: National Trends and Nova Scotia's Outlook
Canadian Housing Market Update July 2025: National Trends and Nova Scotia's Outlook
The Canadian housing market continues its significant transformation in 2025, with dramatic regional variations shaping the landscape for buyers, sellers, and investors. While national home prices hit their lowest levels since April 2021, Nova Scotia emerges as a standout performer, bucking the downward trend affecting much of the country.
National Housing Market Overview: Continued Price Corrections
Current Market Conditions
Canadian home prices experienced another decline in June 2025, with the national composite benchmark price dropping 0.2% month-over-month to $698,600. This represents a substantial 3.6% decrease compared to June 2024, translating to approximately $25,600 in lost value year-over-year.
The broader context reveals even more dramatic changes. Since the market peaked in February 2022, typical home prices have fallen 17.8%, representing a decline of nearly $149,000. However, it's important to note that current prices remain 26.7% above pre-pandemic 2019 levels, indicating the market hasn't returned to historical norms despite recent corrections.
Accelerating Decline Trends
The pace of price reductions has intensified, with seven consecutive months of decreases marking the most sustained downturn in recent memory. This trend reflects broader economic pressures including elevated interest rates, reduced affordability, and shifting buyer sentiment.
New analytical methodologies from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) now place greater emphasis on condominium apartments, suggesting that today's typical homes are generally smaller or located in less desirable areas compared to pre-pandemic properties. This shift affects how we interpret price trends and market dynamics.
CREA's Revised 2025-2026 Housing Forecast
2025 Predictions
CREA has updated its housing market projections, painting a cautious but varied picture across regions:
National Average Price: Expected to decline further by 1.7% to $677,368 in 2025, approximately $10,000 lower than earlier forecasts.
Regional Variations: Only British Columbia and Ontario are anticipated to experience continued price declines. However, weaker sales volumes in these high-priced provinces significantly impact national statistics.
Growth Markets: The rest of Canada, including Nova Scotia, is forecast to achieve price gains between 4% and 8% in 2025, demonstrating remarkable regional resilience.
2026 Market Recovery
Looking ahead to 2026, CREA projects a modest rebound with sales increasing by 6.3% and average prices rising 3% to $697,920. Despite this recovery, 2026 will mark the sixth consecutive year where national averages hover near the $700,000 threshold.
CREA emphasizes that these forecasts remain "subject to very high levels of uncertainty," though they express greater confidence compared to earlier projections this year.
Nova Scotia Housing Market: A Regional Success Story
Halifax Market Resilience
Nova Scotia, primarily represented by the Halifax Regional Municipality, has demonstrated remarkable resistance to the national downward trend. While other major markets struggle, Halifax has maintained price stability and growth momentum.
The province is positioned to achieve year-over-year gains ranging from 4% to 8% in 2025, significantly outpacing the declines experienced in Ontario and British Columbia. This performance reflects several key factors:
- Continued population growth driven by interprovincial migration
- Relatively affordable housing compared to major urban centers
- Strong local economy supporting housing demand
- Limited housing supply maintaining price pressure
Market Activity and Demand
Current data suggests Nova Scotia's housing market remains active, with robust demand levels exceeding many other Canadian regions. The availability of comprehensive sales data and housing statistics indicates a market that continues to function effectively despite broader national challenges.
Regional Comparison: 2025-2026 Housing Outlook
| Province | 2025 Price Trend | 2026 Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Ontario | Declining | Modest recovery |
| British Columbia | Declining | Modest recovery |
| Nova Scotia | +4% to +8% growth | Continued strength |
| Rest of Canada | Modest growth | Slight rebound |
This comparison highlights Nova Scotia's exceptional position within the Canadian housing landscape. While expensive provinces like Ontario and British Columbia work through significant corrections, Nova Scotia offers stability and growth potential for housing market participants.
Investment and Market Implications
For Homebuyers
Nova Scotia presents compelling opportunities for homebuyers seeking market stability and potential appreciation. The province's forecast growth of 4-8% offers a stark contrast to declining markets elsewhere in Canada.
For Current Homeowners
Existing Nova Scotia homeowners can expect continued equity preservation and growth, unlike their counterparts in Ontario and British Columbia who face ongoing value erosion.
For Investors
Real estate investors may find Nova Scotia's market fundamentals particularly attractive, given the combination of price growth expectations and relative affordability compared to major urban centers.
Key Market Drivers and Considerations
Several factors continue to influence housing market performance across Canada:
Interest Rate Environment: Monetary policy decisions remain crucial for market direction, with rate changes disproportionately affecting highly leveraged markets.
Population Growth: Interprovincial migration patterns favor regions like Nova Scotia, supporting local housing demand.
Economic Fundamentals: Regional employment levels, wage growth, and economic diversification impact long-term housing sustainability.
Government Policy: Federal and provincial housing policies, including foreign buyer taxes and first-time buyer programs, shape market dynamics.
: Data and forecasts referenced from CREA housing market releases as reported by Connect CRE and local Halifax market statistics
